Assumptions
The representative home, the upgrade targets, what the fund claims, and where the price per kilowatt comes from.
Case study, Mitchell County, Texas
In September, Fluidstack, Cipher and Anthropic committed $10M to Colorado City's water system. This case study asks what the same $10M would do as energy efficiency upgrades.
Put the next $10M where residents can see it
Residents tend to dismiss indirect commitments as promises. An efficiency upgrade shows up on their own electric bill, and community approval brings a campus online faster.
Set the two numbers
Estimated numbers
Peak cut per home3.21 kW8,040 kWh a year
Rebate per home$15,580covers the whole job
Homes reached64130 percent of the county's owner-occupied homes
Bill savings per home$1,201a year at 14.94 cents per kWh
Together these homes take about 2.06 MW of peak demand off the local grid, all of it paid for by the fund.
1. The default price of $5,200 per kW is what a kilowatt of grid supply costs the campus in present value over the site's 20-year contracted term, at 2025 prices and a 6 percent discount rate. See the calculation.
2. The rebate is capped at the cost of the job. Where the price per kW times the peak cut is higher than the job cost, the fund pays the job cost and the household pays nothing.
The math, one representative home
Median build year 1957, 58 percent of homes built before 1960. The engine starts there: 2,000 sq ft, one storey, R-7 attic, R-4 walls, 18 ACH50, SEER2 10 heat pump.
| Upgrade | Cost | Peak cut | Energy saved | Per kW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $600 | 0.85 kW | 2,145 kWh | $709 | |
| $1,800 | 1.22 kW | 3,093 kWh | $1,476 | |
| $4,500 | 0.85 kW | 2,146 kWh | $5,319 | |
| $180 | 0.00 kW | 1,081 kWh | no credit | |
| $8,500 | 0.76 kW | 1,753 kWh | $11,239 | |
| Selected together | $15,580 | 3.21 kW | 8,040 kWh | $4,851 |
Together is always less than the parts added up, because each upgrade is credited against the load the ones before it left behind. How the two engines work
Behind the numbers
The two engines
Degree day and modified bin, how demand is claimed from full load hours, and why a package saves less than its parts added together.
How a job gets paid
The eight steps between a household signing up and money reaching the contractor, and why the rebate paid is not the rebate quoted.
Ask the engine yourself
The engine behind these numbers has an address. An AI assistant can ask it about this county or any other, and every answer carries the engine's own notes.
Run this for your site
Pick the county, the fund and the price per kilowatt.